Marcuson's Annual Gibraltar Insurance Seminar 2026
Our annual Gibraltar insurance seminar went ahead despite severe weather and travel disruption, bringing the market together to discuss motor profitability and the wider personal lines outlook.
ReadOur thinking
Research, market analysis and opinion from the team, including our annual study of the UK motor market.
Latest
What an actuarial secondment can bring to a team
Steven Fisher reflects on his eight-month reserving secondment with a London Market client and the value of working as part of an insurer's team.
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Gibraltar insurers write over a third of UK motor premium
Gibraltar-based insurers wrote around 36% of UK motor premium in 2025, according to our annual study, as featured by GBC News.
ReadAll insights
Marcuson's Annual Gibraltar Insurance Seminar 2026
Our annual Gibraltar insurance seminar went ahead despite severe weather and travel disruption, bringing the market together to discuss motor profitability and the wider personal lines outlook.
ReadWhat an actuarial secondment can bring to a team
Steven Fisher reflects on his eight-month reserving secondment with a London Market client and the value of working as part of an insurer's team.
ReadGibraltar insurers write over a third of UK motor premium
Gibraltar-based insurers wrote around 36% of UK motor premium in 2025, according to our annual study, as featured by GBC News.
Read
UK motor 2025: premiums back at 2016 levels, costs down a quarter
Our updated study of 39 UK and Gibraltar motor insurers finds 2025 was another bumper year. In real terms premiums are back where they were in 2016, but implied costs are about 25% lower. Can it last?
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Market cycles and AI: our second London Market capital survey
Our second annual Market Survey seminar brought London Market capital teams together to discuss market cycle modelling and the use of AI.
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Delivering a successful Part VII transfer
A successful Part VII transfer relies on more than technical expertise. Having supported 11 completed transfers, we look at what else it takes.
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UK motor 2025: profits rose again, confounding the forecasts
We expected motor profits to fall back from 2024's highs. Our first look at 2025 disclosures, covering nearly 90% of the market, shows the opposite. What is driving it?
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Climate change and the GI actuary: IFoA Spring Seminar 2026
Alex Marcuson spoke for the IFoA's GI Climate Change Working Party on external models, climate exposure toolkits and the latest themes in climate litigation.
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Internal model dependency structures: is there such a thing as best?
Alex Marcuson and Marcus Schofield presented findings from our 2025 market survey on internal model dependency structures to around 100 people at the London Market Actuaries Group.
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Supporting validation teams in the London Market
Validation teams across the London Market are under increasing pressure. We work alongside them with embedded resource or independent review and challenge.
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Congratulations, José: a newly qualified actuary
José Gómez Mena has passed his final actuarial exam after five years of study alongside his work in the team.
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Climate change readiness for insurers: now is the time to up the tempo
With surprisingly little fanfare, SS4/25 has replaced SS3/19. It applies to all insurers and Lloyd's syndicates, and compliance is expected now.
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GIRO 2025: climate risk and claims inflation
Alex Marcuson and Marcus Schofield spoke at the IFoA's GIRO conference in Liverpool, with the GI Climate Change and Claims Inflation working parties.
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Our 7th annual Gibraltar Insurance Seminar
A packed room at the Sunborn Gibraltar for our 7th annual seminar, sharing our latest view of market performance and our predictions for 2025 to 2026.
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Fifteen years of Marcuson Consulting
Fifteen years ago Marcuson Consulting began in Alex Marcuson's spare room. This week the team took a moment to look back.
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UK motor 2024: hunting whales, and the case for better QRTs
Our market-wide study of 35 UK and Gibraltar motor insurers shows premium up 20% and combined ratios down from 111% to 89%. We also ask how far the regulatory returns can be trusted as a measure of profit.
ReadMotor market
UK motor 2024: an overdue return to profit, and the rise of the A-Team
The rate increases of late 2023 finally reached the bottom line, giving motor insurers their best results in a decade. Meanwhile five groups now write around 60% of the market.
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GIA Motor Forum: STATS19 and the motor market
Our presentation to the GIA Motor Forum on STATS19 road casualty data and the UK motor market.
ReadMotor market
UK Motor Insurance 2023 – is the tail driving the whale?
Earlier this week, the FT reported the latest numbers from EY summarising the UK motor insurance market’s 2023 profitability and the outlook for 2024 and 2025. The combined ratio of 113% for 2023…
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6th Annual Gibraltar Insurance Seminar
Our 6th annual Gibraltar Insurance Seminar at the Sunborn Hotel: our review of the 2023 SFCRs, the UK motor market, and profitability and performance.
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UK motor 2023: a year of dramatic losses, and the firms to watch
Our market-wide study of 30 UK and Gibraltar motor insurers shows the market combined ratio worsening to 112%. A new Loss Impact Indicator shows which firms could least afford a repeat.
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UK motor 2023: heavier losses, and what IFRS 17 did to the numbers
Our early look at 17 leading motor insurers shows 2023 was even worse than 2022, with combined ratios up from 107% to 110%. The move to IFRS 17 also changed how some results look.
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What should we make of insurers who blame Social Inflation for recent woes?
Every insurance story these days includes a, usually unnamed, underwriter bemoaning the ills of social inflation and how it is causing havoc with their portfolio. Gee, Officer Krupke – so many…
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Methodology and Bias - Marcuson Inflation Survey: Q1 2024
We are delighted to launch this quarter’s survey, pulling together opinions on current inflation and its future outlook for the non-life insurance sector.
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PRA Dear CEO letter: 2024 Priorities for Insurance Supervision
On 11th January, the PRA published a “Dear CEO” letter covering their priority areas for Insurance Supervision activity over the coming year. As in previous years, the letter contained much material for firms to…
ReadInflation
Inflation survey Q3 update – views from a wider audience
In 2023 Q3, we were asked by the IFoA’s General Insurance Claims Inflation Working Party to lead their annual survey. This joint survey between Marcuson Consulting and the IFoA has brought on…
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5th Annual Gibraltar Insurance Seminar
Our 5th annual Gibraltar Insurance Seminar at the Sunborn Hotel, with our Q3 2023 inflation survey update.
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Reserving actuaries need to consider the financial implications of climate change
I am delighted to announce the publication of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries Climate Change Reserving Working Party Paper. https:\\vle.actuaries.org.uk\course\view.php?id=1684 We will be…
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Dr GPT or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the AI Part 4
Having been underwhelmed by my first three forays into the application of AI to actuarial functions, all hopes were pinned on Google’s new offering. Google entered the arena later than its rivals, with “Bard AI”…
ReadDr GPT or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the AI Part 3
My first two experiments with Bing AI had been somewhat of a failure. (See earlier posts Part 1 and Part 2.) In my third investigation, I thought it could be interesting and relevant to see if it could look at…
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Dr GPT or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying But Hate the AI Part 2
In my last post on my profile, I explored BingAI and concluded it was a long way from being a useful tool for writing actuarial reports. In Part 2, I’ll be looking at how Chat GPT performs at writing code.
ReadInflation
Inflation – not out of the woods yet
Our survey captures sentiment on price inflation and general claims inflation at a broad level of classification. This update presents results and our thoughts about them from responses received…
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Dr GPT or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying but Hate the AI
“AI is transforming actuarial practice in many ways. Actuaries who embrace AI will be able to leverage its benefits while mitigating its risks. Actuaries who ignore or resist AI will risk becoming obsolete or…
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Climate Risk: Making it Simple for Insurers
Kendra Felisky, Senior Actuary and COO at Marcuson, suggests a pragmatic way for firms to respond to the PRA’s four Climate Change areas of focus. Climate change is something that concerns us all,…
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Machine Learning – A Voyage of Discovery
by Kirsty Ip I attended my first ever GIRO session (virtually) in 2020 and was excited to understand more about the research paper by @RonaldRichman and @CaesarBalona that won last year’s Brian…
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Seven Thoughts on Part VII Transfers
The first and second waves of Brexit-triggered transfers may now have completed, but further Part VII activity looks set to reach the courts – here are five reasons why, and two things to remember…
ReadGibraltar
2021 Gibraltar Insurance Seminar and SFCR Review
It was a pleasure to welcome delegates to our second annual Gibraltar-focussed webinar, “Fit for the Future?”, which we held on 4 March. We would like to thank our Chair and Guest Speaker Ian…
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Validation: Delivering value or just going round the loop?
Top three validation priorities for 2021: better insight, lower cost, capital efficiency At this time of year, many risk and capital teams embark on a new lap of their internal model validation…
ReadRegulation
Dear CRO: Please step up, or step down
by Alex Marcuson There may be trouble ahead… With its decidedly blunt approach, the PRA’s season’s greetings letter to CROs should prove to be a bracing wake-up call. Having set out in Janet and…
ReadMarket commentary
GIRO 2020
The annual GIRO conference is always a highlight for us here at Marcuson Consulting. With the conference being held virtually this year, it has been a great shame that we haven’t been able to…
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Liquidity Risk: Going with the Flow?
The North Atlantic hurricane season is upon us again, and 2020 is expected to be more demanding than normal. As the industry emerges from the first wave of COVID-19, liquidity risk management…
ReadMarket commentary
FCA Business Interruption Test Case – the real question?
At the time of writing, the Business Interruption test case brought by the FCA against eight insurers is in the third day of its eight-day hearing in the High Court, in front of Lord Justice Flaux…
ReadGibraltar
Gibraltar SFCR review webinar
It is great to have held our first Gibraltar SFCR review webinar recently. Huge thanks to our guest speaker Joe Perdoni of the GFSC and Kathryn Morgan for chairing the seminar. Kendra Felisky,…
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Covid-19: Issues for Non-life Firms to Consider
by Alex Marcuson I have been thinking about how Covid-19 may affect the non-life insurance and reinsurance industry over the last week and thought I would share some observations. While there…
ReadRegulation
Dear CEO and Dear Chief Actuary letters 2019
At a recent meeting of the London Market Actuaries’ Group (LMAG) we attended, James Orr, Chief Actuary – General Insurance at the PRA, with his colleagues Cassandra Archer and Elena Papastylianou,…
ReadCapital & validation
Proxy capital modelling in general insurance
Despite recent computational advances, internal/economic capital models remain time-consuming to run and often highly complex. We are currently researching into the use of proxy models in general…
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Cyber Risk and the Evolving Shape of the Internet
A recent paper on the future of the internet by the Centre for International Governance Innovation (See Ref:1) got me thinking about cyber insurance perils through a new lens.
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Hard Brexit: temporary arrangements by EEA State for the insurance sector
Hard Brexit remains a possible outcome. What does this mean for UK insurers which write business in the EEA on a passporting basis, and what does this mean for their EEA policyholders?
ReadMarket commentary
Cyber – a new type of risk or more of the same?
by Alex Marcuson This question occurred to me at a seminar I attended recently. The speaker was arguing that cyber was a new category of insurance, distinct from traditional property and casualty…
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Marcuson Consulting Ltd Appointed to Skilled Person Panel
Marcuson Consulting Ltd are delighted to announce that we have been appointed to the Prudential – Insurance section of the UK Skilled Person Panel. This process was led by the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority and…
ReadMarket commentary
Peril-based reserving and claims simulation
Alex Marcuson presented on the work that his Peril-based reserving working party has been carrying out. This presentation was given at the annual GIRO Conference, this year held during September…
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Learn to be part of the Machine Revolution
Alex Marcuson presented on machine learning at the annual GIRO Conference, this year held during September in Dublin. Speaking together with Alan Chalk, the popular workshop provided an…
ReadRegulation
Brexit – 5 key priorities for Insurers
It is still early days, but the recent Brexit vote presents us with uncertain times ahead. Below I have set out some practical ideas for insurers to consider while the dust settles. 1. Impact of…
ReadMarket commentary
Emerging market exchange rates
The recent political turmoil in Crimea and the resulting trade sanctions led to reports of significant movements in the Russian Rouble. The news prompted us to review the history of one-year…
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PPO Liabilities: modelling mortality risks
There are a lot of uncertainties inherent in the valuation and capital modelling of Periodical Payment Order (“PPO”) liabilities. Not only is there no perfect hedge for the inflation indices…
ReadCapital & validation
PRA Consultation Paper CP7/14
Solvency II: calculation of technical provisions and the use of internal models for general insurers This consultation paper was issued by the PRA in March 2014. It is a short, accessible read and…
ReadRegulation
Changes in energy import/export patterns
There is a new paradigm evolving in energy requirements which will has potentially huge structural implications across several industries. This is illustrated in the graph below. We think…
ReadCapital & validation
Tip of the Iceberg?
The recent high-profile announcement by QBE has prompted us to set down some thoughts on reserving and capital issues raised here. An open question, outside the scope of this article, is whether,…
ReadRegulation
Advisor rotation
This article is about whether audit and actuary rotation need to be items on a CRO’s agenda Most insurance organisations have had the same auditing firm for many years. Very few audits are…
ReadMarket commentary
Top trends to look out for in 2013
What do we do now? With Solvency II being put back for two, three, four or maybe more years, firms now have a chance to scale back their programmes and focus on the usual business objectives of…
ReadBoard training
Solvency II board training – tools for the board, not just facts
Our client, a large Lloyd’s managing agency / plc asked us to design and lead the initial delivery of a board training programme on Solvency II. This involved four distinct phases:
ReadCapital Modelling
Capital allocation – driving business engagement
Our client, a small Lloyd’s managing agency within an international re/insurance group was struggling to get business engagement with the output of their newly-built capital model. They asked us…
ReadCapital Modelling
External validation – cutting through complexity
We carried out a comprehensive independent review for a large Lloyd’s managing agency writing a broad mix of property and casualty direct and reinsurance business. Features of our approach were:
ReadMergers and Acquisitions
Sell-side M&A in the Lloyd’s market
We provided support to a major insurance company where its owners were looking to sell. Having helped prepare reserve adequacy presentations to prospective investors, we were invited to join the…
ReadReserving
Small Data: Large Liabilities – Modelling the Unmodellable?
A large UK domestic insurer came to us wanting our help in modelling some obscure and highly specialised latent claims liabilities to assist with their provision-setting in their audited accounts.…
ReadSoftware and Systems
Choosing capital modelling software
We helped our client, a large Lloyd’s managing agency, carry out a tender process to help them select two critical software components:
ReadPapers
Claims inflation estimation: a practical guide for historical data
IFoA Claims Inflation Working Party, co-authored by Marcus Schofield. Highly commended, GIRO 2024.
ReadPapers
Reserving for climate change: litigation, wordings and qualitative tools
Climate Change Working Party update, co-led by Alex Marcuson. GIRO prize-winning working party.
ReadNothing matches that. Try fewer or different words.
Archive
Earlier articles, 2012 to 2018
Kept for reference. Some of these describe rules and markets that have since changed.
- Cyber – a new type of risk or more of the same?
- Marcuson Consulting Ltd Appointed to Skilled Person Panel
- Peril-based reserving and claims simulation
- Learn to be part of the Machine Revolution
- Brexit – 5 key priorities for Insurers
- Emerging market exchange rates
- PPO Liabilities: modelling mortality risks
- PRA Consultation Paper CP7/14
- Changes in energy import/export patterns
- Tip of the Iceberg?
- Advisor rotation
- Top trends to look out for in 2013