It is still early days, but the recent Brexit vote presents us with uncertain times ahead. Below I have set out some practical ideas for insurers to consider while the dust settles. 1. Impact of FX movements on business plans, balance sheets and internal models. Whenever there is a significant FX swing, particularly between Sterling… Continue reading>
The recent political turmoil in Crimea and the resulting trade sanctions led to reports of significant movements in the Russian Rouble. The news prompted us to review the history of one-year foreign exchange rate movements for the Rouble along with a number of the high-growth economies to see whether they had proved more volatile on… Continue reading>
There is a new paradigm evolving in energy requirements which will has potentially huge structural implications across several industries. This is illustrated in the graph below. We think insurance will be affected in several ways, here are just a few possible consequences: Acceleration in US economic recovery and resulting consequences of interest rate normalisation on… Continue reading>
We thought these two charts prepared using recent data from the UK Office for National Statistics tell an interesting tale: unstable and possibly declining inflation over the last few years coupled with a decline in real average weekly earnings over the period since the financial crisis broke. How best to capture this in pricing, reserving… Continue reading>